574. The Secret of Hot Streaks

Episode 574 looks at Fernando Tatis Jr.'s recent power outage and the instinct everyone has to explain it: a swing change, a new approach, something must be different. Austin argues that's usually wrong. Performance swings above and below average on its own, the same way 50 coin flips in a row will eventually land heads even with nothing rigged. He brings in Derek Jeter as the counterexample: a player who resisted constant tinkering because he understood the difference between signal and noise. The episode argues that chasing an explanation for every hot or cold stretch is what actually gets players and the people coaching them into trouble.